China International Finance Securities ichangobva kutaura kuti pasi roseOptical Transceiver musika unofungidzirwa kuti uchasvika pamusoro pemadhora gumi emadhora panosvika 2021, nemusika wepamusha uchitora zvinopfuura makumi mashanu muzana. Muna 2022, kuiswa kwe400GOptical Transceivers pamwero mukuru uye kukurumidza kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwe800GOptical Transceivers inotarisirwa, pamwe nekuenderera mberi kwekukura kwekudiwa kweakakwira-speed optical chip zvigadzirwa. Pamusoro pezvo, sekureva kwaOmdia, iyo musika nzvimbo yemaziso machipisi anoshandiswa mu25G uye pamusoro-retiOptical Transceivers inotarwa kuwedzera kubva pamadhora 1.356 bhiriyoni muna 2019 kusvika pamadhora 4.340 bhiriyoni muna 2025, paine huwandu hunofungidzirwa hwekukura hwepagore hwe21.40 muzana.
Kutarisa kukura kwekudiwa kwe optical machipi kubva pakufanotaura kweOptical Transceiver industry.
LightCounting inofanotaura kuti musika wepasi rose optical transceiver uchakura ne4.34% muna 2023, iine huwandu hwekukura kwegore hwe11.43% kubva 2024 kusvika 2027.
Zvinoenderana nechikwereti cheCICC, musika wepasi rose saizi ye optical machipi ekutaurirana muna 2021 inotarisirwa kuita 14.67 bhiriyoni yuan. Saizi yemusika ye2.5G, 10G, 25G uye pamusoro pemachipisi epamusoro i1.167 bhiriyoni yuan, 2.748 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 10.755 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana. Omdia anofanotaura kuti saizi yemusika weiyo optical chips inoshandiswa 25G uye pamusoro optical modules muna 2021 ichave 1.913 bhiriyoni US madhora, kana mabhiriyoni gumi nematatu eyuan.
Kubva pane idzi data, inofungidzirwa kuti musika wepasi rose wekutaurirana optical chip uchazvidavirira 18-20% yemusika weOptical module muna 2021. Iyo inoenderana optical chip musika saizi inoverengerwa zvichibva pa18% yepasi-yekupedzisira optical module musika. uye 20% yemusika wepamusoro-soro.
Parizvino, mazhinji emagetsi emagetsi ane mature product structure anotora mana-channel chimiro chePSM4 kana CWDM4. Optical chips ye10G uye pazasi inoenderana ne1G, 10G, uye 40G optical modules. Zvinoenderana neiyo data yekufanotaura kweLightCounting, kutumirwa kwe1G, 10G, uye 40G digital communication optical modules kuchatanga kudzikira kubva 2023, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemusika kubva pa614 miriyoni US madhora muna 2022 kusvika zana nemakumi mashanu emamiriyoni emadhora muna 2027. Zvichitora 18% sechikamu, saizi yemusika weptical chip inotarisirwa kudonha kubva paUS$111 miriyoni muna 2022 kusvika US$27 miriyoni muna 2027.
Iyo data center network architecture inopfuura yekare 10G/40G CLOS system. Mazhinji makambani eInternet epamba anoshanda pane 25G/100G CLOS architecture, nepo North America makambani ari kuchinjika kune yakawedzera yepamusoro 100G/400G CLOS uye 800G network architectures. Iyo yepamusoro-speed digital optical modules muhuwandu hwe100G-800G inonyanya kushandisa DFB uye EML laser chips, uye chiyero chebaud ndeye 25G, 53G, 56G. Zvizhinji zve800G optical module zvigadzirwa zvino pamusika zvinotora 8 * 100G architecture uye shandisa masere 56G EML PAM4 optical chips.
LightCounting's forecast data inoratidza kuti kutumirwa kwemamodule optical anoshanda pa25G, 100G, 400G uye 800G acharamba achikura kubva 2023 kusvika 2027. Munguva iyi, ukuru hwemusika hunotarisirwa kuwedzera kubva paUSD 4.450 bhiriyoni kusvika kuUS $ 5 bhiriyoni muna 2022. Ichave US $ 7.269 bhiriyoni muna 2027, inonakidza makore mashanu-yakasanganiswa gore negore kukura kwe10.31%. Iyo inoenderana optical chip musika saizi inotarisirwawo kukura kubva kuUS $890 miriyoni kusvika US$1.453 bhiriyoni.
Wirelessback-haul 10G inoda yakagadzikana, 25G inoda iri kukura
Kubva munaNovember 2022, 5G yeChina yasvika padanho repamusoro, paine 2.287 miriyoni zviteshi zvepasi zvakaiswa munyika yose. Kunyangwe kukura kwenzvimbo yekuvaka chiteshi kwadzikira, data rinoratidza kuti nekuenderera mberi kwekuvandudzwa kwe5G yekupinda uye nekupfumisa maapplication, kudiwa kwekuwedzera kwewireless midhaul uye backhaul network kuri kuwedzera. Kunyange zvazvo kutengeswa kwepasi rose kwe10G uye 25G optical module kwave kuderera kubva ku2022 kusvika ku2027, zvinotarisirwa kuti saizi yemusika wewireless fronthaul optical modules ichavandudza ne2026, apo optical modules pamusoro pe50G ichatanga kuiswa mumabheti. Nyanzvi dzemaindasitiri dzinotenda kuti 50G uye 100G optical modules haigone kutyaira rebound ye5G fronthaul musika kusvika 2026, nepo 25G uye pamusoro 5G fronthaul optical modules inotarisirwa kudzikamisa pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi maviri emamiriyoni pakati pe2023 ne2025. Sezvo kudiwa kwe5G traffic ichienderera mberi. kukura, kutumirwa kwe5G yepakati-haul uye 10G optical transceivers inotarisirwa kuwedzera kubva ku2.1 miriyoni mauniti mu2022 kusvika 3.06 miriyoni mayunitsi muna 2027, ine makore mashanu CAGR ye7.68%. Iko kukura kwemusika kudiwa kunotarisirwa kudzikamisa iyo 10G uye pazasi optical module musika pamadhora makumi mapfumbamwe emamiriyoni, uye inoenderana optical chip musika inofungidzirwa kusvika pamadhora gumi nemasere. Pakati nepakati uye backhaul musika, kudiwa kwe25G, 100G, uye 200G optical modules inotarisirwa kuchengetedza kukura nekukurumidza kubva 2023, uye saizi yemusika ye25G uye pamusoro pepakati uye backhaul optical modules inotarisirwa kuwedzera kubva kuUS $ 103 miriyoni muna 2022. kusvika kuUS$171 miriyoni muna 2027. Kukura kwekukura kwepagore kuri 10.73%. Musika unoenderana weoptical chip unotarisirwa kuwedzera kubva pamadhora mazana maviri nerimwe kusvika pamadhora makumi matatu nemana.
Wired yekuwana 10G PON kudiwa kuri kuramba kuchikura
Chirongwa cheChina chegumi nemana cheMakore mashanu cheiyo infocomm indasitiri inoisa zvinangwa zvechimbichimbi zvedhijitari yenyika. Munguva iyi, hurumende inoronga kuendesa gigabit fiber optic network kuti ikurumidze kuvakwa kwe "gigabit maguta" uye kuwedzera kuvharwa kwegigabit network munyika yose. Pakupera kwa2022, makambani matatu ekutanga enharembozha anotarisira kuti huwandu hwevashandisi veInternet Broadband access vanosvika 590 miriyoni. Pakati pavo, chiyero chekuwana che100Mbps uye pamusoro chaiva 554 mamiriyoni, kuwedzera kwe55.13 mamiriyoni pamusoro pegore rapfuura. Panguva imwecheteyo, nhamba yevashandisi vekushandisa vane chiyero che1000 Mbps uye pamusoro yakasvika mamiriyoni 917.5, kuwedzera kwemamiriyoni 57.16 pamusoro pegore rapfuura. Pasinei nekufambira mberi uku, kuchine nzvimbo yekuvandudza, uye Gigabit kunyoresa kupinda kunotarisirwa kuva 15.6% chete pakupera kwe2022. Kuti izvi zviitike, hurumende iri kukurudzira kuvakwa kwe10G-PON network mumaguta uye nzvimbo dzakakosha. dhorobha, tichitarisa pakuwedzera kufukidzwa. Pakazosvika Zvita 2022, nhamba ye10G PON ports ine Gigabit network sevhisi kugona ichasvika 15.23 miriyoni, ichifukidza dzimba dzinopfuura 500 miriyoni munyika yose. Izvi zvinoita kuti China gigabit network chiyero uye yekuvhara nhanho pakati pepamusoro-soro pasi rose. Tichitarisa kumberi, musika wePON ucharamba uchikura, uye LightCounting inofanotaura kuti kutumirwa kwePONoptical transceivers pasi pe 10G ichaderera kubva 2022. Kusiyana neizvi, 10G PON inotakura inotarisirwa kukura nokukurumidza, inosvika mamiriyoni e26.9 mu2022 uye mamiriyoni e73 mamiriyoni mu2027, ane makore mashanu CAGR ye22.07%. Kunyangwe saizi yemusika ye10G optical modules ichadzikira kubva pakakwirira muna 2022, musika unoenderana weoptical chip uchadererawo kubva paUS$141.4 miriyoni kusvika US$57 miriyoni. Tichitarisa kumberi, 25G PON uye 50G PON zvinotarisirwa kuita zvidiki-diki-kutumirwa muna 2024, zvichiteverwa nekukura-kukura mumakore anotevera. Inofungidzirwa kuti saizi yemusika ye25G uye pamusoro pePON optical modules ichapfuura mazana maviri emamiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica muna 200, uye inoenderana optical chip musika ichasvika mamirioni makumi mana emadhora ekuAmerica. Pakazere, madhijitari eChina acharamba achikura nekukura mumakore anotevera.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-22-2023